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中国循证儿科杂志

中国循证儿科杂志 ›› 2024, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 24-30.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-5501.2024.01.005

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

上海市儿童青少年成熟度偏移量预测公式的建立

潘其乐1,2　尹晓峰1,2　朱镕鑫1　蔡广1   

  1. 1 上海体育科学研究所（上海市反兴奋剂中心）　上海，200030；2 共同第一作者
  • 收稿日期:2023-11-17 修回日期:2024-01-24 出版日期:2024-02-25 发布日期:2024-02-25
  • 通讯作者: 蔡广

Development of prediction equations for the maturity offset in Shanghai children and adolescents

PAN Qile1,2, YIN Xiaofeng1,2, ZHU Rongxin1, CAI Guang1   

  1. 1 Shanghai Research Institute of Sports Science, Shanghai Anti-doping Agency, Shanghai 200030, China; 2 Co-first author
  • Received:2023-11-17 Revised:2024-01-24 Online:2024-02-25 Published:2024-02-25
  • Contact: CAI Guang

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摘要： 背景 儿童青少年生长发育趋势被认为是“生活状况的生物标准”，体现基因轨迹、以营养和疾病为核心的环境因素以及社会经济情况等的综合效应。 目的 本研究旨在通过纵向研究，构建非侵入性的成熟度偏移量预测公式，评估个体生理成熟度水平。 设计 混合纵向研究 方法 “儿童青少年生长发育追踪研究”队列的2015-2021年数据中，挑选出有四次及以上监测记录、能准确计算生长突增高峰年龄（aPHV）的儿童青少年，采用lasso方法进行成熟度偏移量的预测。补充2022-2023年数据后，基于相同的筛选依据挑选儿童青少年，对所得的预测公式进行验证。所有的统计在R语言和GraphPad软件中进行。 主要结局指标 成熟度偏移量公式。 结果 男儿童青少年＝-15.553＋0.705×年龄＋0.067×坐高＋0.063×BMI，SEE为0.625；女儿童青少年＝-14.240＋0.668×年龄＋0.084×坐高＋0.002×克托莱指数，SEE为0.542；更适用于目前上海市的儿童青少年群体。 结论 现阶段的儿童青少年仍保持青春突增期提前的生长长期趋势特征，要抓住这仍较旺的势头，充分发挥生长潜力，促进群体的健康发展。采用适用于当前人群的成熟度偏移量预测公式，进行个体生理成熟度的评价，以实现训练和比赛过程中的公平竞争和体育人才的早期初筛，促进青少年体育素养和能力水平的长期发展。

关键词: 纵向研究, 儿童青少年, 成熟度偏移量, 预测公式

Abstract: Background Trends in growth and development of children and adolescents are considered to be a " biological standard of living conditions", reflecting the combined effects of genetic trajectories, environmental factors centered on nutrition and disease, and socio-economic circumstances. Objective The aim of this study was to construct a non-invasive equation for the prediction of maturity offsets and to assess the level of physiological maturity of individuals through a longitudinal study. Design Mixed longitudinal study. Methods From the 2015-2021 cohort of the Child and Adolescent Growth and Development Longitudinal Study, children and adolescents with four or more monitoring records who could accurately calculate the age of peak height velocity (aPHV) were selected for the prediction of maturity offsets using the lasso method. After supplementing the data in 2022-2023, children and adolescents were selected based on the same selection criteria, and the equations were validated. All statistics were performed in R and GraphPad software. Main outcome Maturity offset equations. Results Male equation = -15.553 + 0.705 × age + 0.067 × sitting height + 0.063 × BMI, with a SEE of 0.625; female equation = -14.240 + 0.668 × age + 0.084 × sitting height + 0.002 × quetelet index, with a SEE of 0.542. These equations were more suitable for the current cohort of children and adolescents in Shanghai. Conclusion At the present period, children and adolescents still maintain the long-term trend of growth characterized by the advancement of the pubertal spurt. It is necessary to seize this strong momentum to give full expression to the growth potential and to promote the healthy development of the population. Maturity offset equations applicable to the current population could be adopted for the evaluation of individual physiological maturity, in order to achieve fair competition and early screening of sports talents during training and competition, and to promote the long-term development of youth sports literacy and ability level.

Key words: longitudinal study, children and adolescents, maturity offset, prediction equation